Eric Adams (still) must be defeated
Everything is at stake in the 2024 elections. But that doesn't mean we can wait to take action for 2025...
Really, an article about the 2025 mayor’s race, now? As wild as the last month has been (and I have a piece on that coming next week), the New York City primary for mayor is now less than 11 months away, which means it’s time to get organized.
Two things you can’t talk people out of are going to law school and running for office. If someone asks for your opinion on either, it’s most likely to validate a decision they’ve already made. There was definitely a moment earlier in the 2025 New York City mayoral election cycle when the anti-Adams consensus was that we needed to unite around a single challenger, a progressive standard bearer who could build a winning coalition and avoid the divisiveness of 2021 and other sordid primaries past. Right now it looks increasingly like that isn’t going to happen, but we might still be alright.
As Mayor Adams’ administration passed the 2.5 year mark, it continues to be mired in corruption and self-indulgence, even as the City has failed to materially improve the lives of its residents or successfully bring any major new initiative to completion. New York has failed to bounce back from COVID, its lethargy obvious in contrast to more dynamic international cities and innovative projects being tried in other American cities. The library hours fight, the failure to sustain 3k or advance closing Rikers, the countless millions of dollars of police overtime to dubious public safety ends, the endless churn of strong civil servants leaving his administration in frustration - people challenging Adams have a lot to work with. And the serious possibility of Trump returning to the presidency - though less of a foregone conclusion than it was a few weeks ago - along with a Republican-controlled Congress, will require New York City to be led by a champion for pluralistic, progressive values rather than a narcissist who waves away all critics as “haters”.
Since last summer, people have been asking who would be the most effective messenger to offer a different vision for New York City, and who could build a campaign to win over voters.
So far, the people who have put themselves forward as potential candidates, either publicly or more quietly, include former Comptroller Scott Stringer, current Comptroller Brad Lander, State Senator Zellnor Myrie, State Senator Jessica Ramos, and Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani. (Some people float the 2021 runner-up, Kathryn Garcia, and the dark specter of former Governor Andrew Cuomo lurks, though I personally don’t think this is his race.) After the last few election cycles at the city and state level, it’s been obvious that the progressive left lacks the juice to win an election without a broader coalition of support, something all of these potential candidates recognize. They know any candidate to Adams’ left would have to run up the score in parts of the city like the Upper West Side, Park Slope, Astoria, etc., while also bringing some other voting bloc to the table, whether labor, specific ethnic groups, or geographies that otherwise would go for Adams. Each of the aforementioned candidates (or their surrogates) make the case that they can do this; otherwise, why run?
If we were operating in a traditional election setting, where multiple candidates were at risk of splitting the anti-Adams vote, it would make a lot of sense to unite around the most viable candidate and push the others out. New York City, of course, has ranked choice voting. When that new system was implemented in 2021 (a chaotic, COVID-era election where campaigns were mostly run on Zoom, lest we forget), ranked choice wasn’t used strategically, and Adams sailed past a disorganized group of more progressive opponents on a moderate, law & order platform.
I’m not myopic on how fancy we can get with ranked choice voting. For example, I think it unlikely that progressive candidates going head to head in forums across the city, each believing in their own path to victory, would endorse ranking each other second. I do believe, however, that candidates could be disciplined around a message of “Don’t Rank Adams.” Indeed, a recent Slingshot poll suggested that plenty of voters aren’t particularly interested in ranking Adams to begin with, that he is very weak outside his core group of supporters.
Likewise, every potential candidate and surrogate I’ve spoken with so far has committed to focusing their energy on attacking Adams (and Cuomo, should he enter the race), rather than infighting with other progressives. Of course, that is easier said than done 11 months out. I’m sure it’ll get chippy closer to the primary. But this is the recipe for taking Adams down: If one candidate can challenge him at his base in Brooklyn, another can galvanize the far left, another can mobilize Manhattan, another can hold certain unions neutral - those candidates won’t be cannibalizing each other, they will be shutting down Adams’ paths to a majority. This will require not just discipline from the candidates, but from their campaign teams, their allies, and even their superfans on Twitter. But it can be done.
Ultimately, some of these candidates are going to outperform the others, by exciting more New Yorkers with their vision, getting more publicity, and raising more money. For now, the best hope to replace Mayor Adams in 2025 is to support as many of these potential candidates as people feel comfortable with.
Lastly, we must resist the urge to ignore 2025 out of anxiety for 2024. There is plenty folks can be doing to prevent a worst case scenario in this year’s elections, including volunteering with and donating to House candidates in close races. But as New Yorkers, our impact can be felt most strongly close to home, and we can’t wait until November 6th or January 21st to start organizing for next spring’s mayoral election. Come June 2025, the country will appreciate having the mayor of its largest city being someone who can share a more hopeful, uplifting vision for what lies ahead. Let's turn that vision into reality.
Postgame
We are hosting events with potential candidates in the months ahead. If you’d like to join our event for Comptroller Brad Lander on August 14th, RSVP here.
If you’d like to attend events later this summer for Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani or State Senator Zellnor Myrie, reply to this email and I’ll send you the details.
Around the horn
You may have noticed my Substacks have been more irregular this year. The first half of the year was incredibly busy with work, but I did publish a few pieces worth checking out along the way.
I recently wrote on how we can use a new federal program, the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, to bring air conditioning to prisons. The overwhelming majority of American prisons lack AC, which leads to horrific health and violence outcomes.
This spring I co-authored a piece with my longtime friend, Dr. Noa Gafni, on the profound implications of the collapse of trust in the United States, and what we can do about it.
This winter I published on why I attended CPAC in an effort to keep building common ground relationships.
Great post! Couldn't agree more that any mayoral candidate has to stitch together a hell of a coalition of voters. 538's analysis of the 2021 mayoral primary is a great resource on how NYC's different shades of blue voters voted last time: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-political-boroughs-of-new-york-city/